Quarterly Economic Outlook Q4 2023
All signs are that the economy globally is beginning to slow. This isn’t unexpected. The purpose of Central Banks increasing interest rates has been to bring down inflation by first slowing the global economy. It is working. Price growth in the eurozone is now converging on its 2% target rate. For an Irish economy which relies on global demand for our exports the major danger now is that Central Banks may have done too much.
The softening global picture is clearly reflected in falling goods exports and slowing investment levels here at home. Yet the full squeeze of higher rates on consumers and businesses is yet to come. Ireland is not in a recession, but neither is it immune to the troubles of our trading partners. The Irish economy has had a spectacular four years with growth outstripping any of our major partners in terms of exports, investment and employment. We are now entering a period of consolidation where those gains are not reversed but businesses have a much greater focus on areas like cost and competitiveness. The decisions of the Government which are building in billions of euro in additional regulatory labour market costs remains a major risk for the years ahead.
Download the full report below or listen to the latest episode of Ibec Responds to hear highlights and key findings, featuring Executive Director, Lobbying and Influence, Fergal O'Brien and Chief Economist, Gerard Brady.