Global PulsePoint

Executive Summary 

13 November, 2025 - This update captures trends through October, including key developments from early November 2025.

The dominant global factor is policy-driven friction in the United States. A record-breaking US government shutdown, now the longest in history, triggered a complete data blackout. This has impaired decision-making and effectively sidelined the Federal Reserve, forcing business leaders to navigate in a fog.

This internal US dysfunction is running in parallel with profound policy divergence elsewhere. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England is trapped between persistently high 3.8% inflation and a stagnant economy. Its 5-4 vote to hold rates highlights this deep uncertainty. This contrasts with the Eurozone, where the ECB has paused amid cooling inflation, and China, where the PBoC held rates steady to support a fragile recovery.

The operating environment is no longer defined by cyclical risk but by compounding, multi-vector friction.

Signals to watch in November

• US Data Blackout: The historic shutdown meant all official US data (Jobs, Inflation, GDP) was suspended. The economy was operating blind.

• The Data Blind Fed: The Federal Reserve was operating without its primary gauges, forcing it to rely on market signals and weaker, private-sector proxies to guide policy.

• UK Policy Bind: The BoE is stuck. It held rates at 4.0% due to persistent 3.8% inflation, even as the economy weakens and four (of nine) members voted for a rate cut.

• China's Trade Shock: China’s exports fell 1.1% in October as shipments to the US plunged 25.2%. This validates the tariff 'front-loading' hypothesis is over and is likely compounded by a sharp cooling in US domestic demand.

• Private Sector Warnings: With US data dark, only private signals (which show weakening) are available, though these are imperfect proxies for official data.

Market Dynamics / Where sentiment, risk & hiring are showing up

Strategic Signal - November 2025 The Data Blind Fed

The US economy has been flying blind. The historic government shutdown suspended all official economic data. The consequence is not just a lack of information, but the impairment of the Federal Reserve. In an environment of high uncertainty, the absence of official gauges is itself a profound, destabilizing economic shock.

Financial Markets (Equities)

The bottom line:

Global equities rose in October, pricing in a "soft landing" scenario. This optimism, however, creates a sharp tension with the reality on the ground: a US government shutdown, a data blackout, and hard data from China showing a collapse in US-bound trade.

Labour Market

The bottom line:

Official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data for October was not released. The only visibility into the US labour market comes from private data, which shows weakness. The UK labour market is also softening, according to the Bank of England, with unemployment at 4.8%.

Productivity

The bottom line:

Productivity trends continue to show notable divergence. The US remains the global leader, with output per hour worked rising to 81.8 USD, driven by advances in automation and sustained investment in workforce skills. The Eurozone improved to 71.32 USD, reflecting modest gains but still constrained by structural inefficiencies and uneven progress among member states. In the UK, productivity grew slightly to 69.49 USD, underscoring persistent stagnation tied to limited investment and economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, China’s increase to 19.77 USD highlights incremental progress fuelled by industrial upgrades, though structural challenges like an aging workforce and capital inefficiencies continue to weigh on long-term potential. These patterns underscore the uneven pace of global productivity growth, shaped by technological advancement and regional disparities.

Source: Ibec Global original chart based on the estimates from the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

CEO Sentiment & Strategic Priorities

The bottom line:

Latest data shows Q4 2025 CEO confidence has turned pessimistic. This pessimism is no longer theoretical. It is a direct response to tangible policy dysfunction. The historic government shutdown has frozen key services like small business loans and created a data vacuum that makes strategic planning nearly impossible.

The Long View / Topical deep dives based on emerging global issues.

The Fractured Finance Order: Capital, Currency & the New Gatekeepers

Capital is no longer universally mobile. It flows through competing channels shaped by currency blocs, sovereign balance sheets, subsidy regimes, and digital systems. Dollar dominance remains, but diversification into euro, RMB, and gold is growing. Public debt above US$100 trillion is limiting fiscal flexibility, while subsidy regimes increasingly act as gates to access rather than neutral incentives. Digital finance is splitting into regional platforms, each with its own compliance requirements. The underlying change is structural. Finance is being engineered into controlled channels, similar to supply chains. Those who build modular, multi-channel access will be best placed to secure funding in a fragmented system.

For further in depth analysis on the fractured finance order, check out the latest edition of our Global Compass here.