Our approach to Budget 2026

The global economy is entering a period of profound uncertainty. While the future remains difficult to predict, what is clear is that the economic model Ireland has relied on for the past 50 years, which was rooted in multilateralism, openness, and globalisation, is under significant strain. The scale of this change has left financial markets concerned about the erosion of global growth prospects, elevated debt levels, the ongoing risk of falling capital flows into the US and a realignment of global economic activity.

The level of uncertainty created by the upturning of trade and financial norms has left corporates globally in a place where new investments are being reviewed and business models examined. While final business investment decisions have been put on pause in the first half of 2025, the process of assessing options and actions are intensifying. It would be a mistake to think that a pause in investments is the same thing as the investment environment not moving. The current decision-making hiatus will not last indefinitely. Global corporates will, in the not-too-distant future, return to making critical investment decisions.

Feedback from Ibec members is very clear. While the day-to-day decisions which trigger investments are on pause, the shape of the future global economy is being formed in board rooms across the world. Ireland cannot be complacent to the risk of realignment of business models and supply chains.

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Gerard Brady is the Chief Economist at Ibec. His role involves regular analysis of economic issues for a business audience, shaping Ibec's economic, tax and fiscal policy positions and advising companies and sectoral organisations. He is a current member on the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) and the National Statistics Board. He also represents Irish business in a number of international economic and tax fora such as Business at the OECD (BIAC) and BusinessEurope. Prior to joining Ibec in 2013, Gerard worked as a Lecturer in Economics in University College Cork. He is a previous winner of the Miriam Hederman O’Brien prize awarded by the Foundation for Fiscal Studies.