Quarterly Economic Outlook Q3 2019

Ibec today published its latest Q3 2019 Quarterly Economic Outlook which forecasts GDP growth of 4% in 2019. We are now at the top of the global business cycle and Irish households are clearly benefitting from strong growth. This growth dividend has increased real, after-tax, household income in the economy by one-quarter in just five years. These rising incomes are underpinned by exceptional levels of business investment and related employment effects.

 

For 2020, Ibec forecasts that growth will moderate to 2.7%, as both the Irish and global economies reach a mature stage of the business cycle. Our forecasts assume a deal on Brexit is reached. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we expect significant impacts from continued depreciation in the value of sterling, cancelled investment, falling consumer confidence, rising costs, and significant trade disruptions. The economy may still grow but growth would more than halve in 2020 and employment growth could fall below 0.5%.

  

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Ibec Quarterly Economic Outlook - Q3 2019 pdf | 576.7 kb