Ibec Brexit Tracker November 2018
4 February 2019
The Brexit withdrawal agreement is a major milestone. It holds the potential for an orderly UK exit, includes a transition period that can be extended until the end of 2022, and has far-reaching provisions to address Irish concerns.
The non-binding political declaration on future EU-UK relations sets out choices for the UK, but provides few definitive answers. It points towards a close future partnership, with zero tariffs along with deep regulatory and customs cooperation. Divergence from EU rules and regulations would result in new trade barriers and trigger the special ‘backstop’ arrangements for Northern Ireland.
The deal is now signed off by EU leaders and approval by the European Parliament is expected in the New Year. The House of Commons is set to vote on the deal on 10 or 11 December, but it looks unlikely to pass, at least on the first occasion. Brexit was always going to fall far short of the unrealistic aspirations of many of its advocates. This reality is now playing out in Westminster and it is impossible to predict what this means for ratification. The possibility of ‘no deal’ or indeed ‘no Brexit’ remain in play.
The major political obstacles to ratification cannot be ignored, and business, along with government and the EU, must work to avoid a ‘no deal’ cliff edge outcome. Contingency planning for all eventualities must also continue.
This tracker provides an overview of how key issues are addressed in the deal that is currently on the table. While many issues are now marked green for good progress, all lights could suddenly turn red if the politics in London start pointing to ‘no deal’.
Download the full Ibec Brexit tracker here Brexit Tracker November 2018.pdf